1) People are emotional creatures. We tend to belive that we are rational or at least somewhat rational. We always try to analyse material facts and come up with "reasons" for our decisions, but our actions proved that we were driven by our emotions all the time.
2) All human sciences are developed by studying the pass. We tend to belive that the near past will stays the same in the near future. That's why when the market is up we felt happy; when the market is down we felt sad.
3) The extend of 2) is that people believe that the history will repeat itself in the future. So we belive in "economy cycles", "market patterns", etc. However future outcomes are often unexpected or just completely random.
Conclusion: Any thing could happen in the market. The pass does not gurantee the future. If you know what people will do, you know what the market will do.
No comments:
Post a Comment